CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-29T14:39:52Z
## Message ID: 20240129-AL-009
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-01-29T04:38Z.

Estimated speed: ~1278 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 52 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 58/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow).  The leading edge or flank of the CME may reach Lucy at 2024-02-03T05:36Z, OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-01-30T12:24Z, STEREO A at 2024-01-31T01:34Z, Mars at 2024-02-02T11:00Z, and Psyche at 2024-02-02T12:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME may reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-31T06:17Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_072000_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001) is associated with M6.8 flare with ID 2024-01-29T03:54:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N25W70) which peaked at 2024-01-29T04:38Z (see notifications 20240129-AL-001 and 20240129-AL-003), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-01-29T05:11:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-002 and 20240129-AL-004), modeled SEP prediction from REleASE:ACE/EPAM 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T05:50:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-005), SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:06:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 28.2-50.1 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:08:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-007), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-01-29T06:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-006 and 20240129-AL-008).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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